SCIENCE
From The Climate Brink: With the release of the new van Vuuren et al 2026 paper on the emissions scenarios that will be used in the upcoming IPCC 7th Assessment Report, the internet has been abuzz with debate over the implications of the formal retirement of the RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5 scenario.
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RCP8.5 (and its successor SSP5-8.5) were designed to be a worst case emissions scenario, not the most likely outcome even in a world that did nothing to address climate change. We were probably never headed to a tripling of global emissions by 2100 (to say nothing of a five-fold increase in coal use), even in the absence of climate policy.
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Rapid declines in clean energy costs have bent the curve of future emissions downward, with new scenarios designed to reflect current policies notably lower than most baseline scenarios in the literature. The 21st century is now unlikely to see a continued expansion of fossil fuel use globally, with current policy scenarios reflecting relatively flat global emissions going forward.
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The brutal math of climate change is this: as long as CO2 emissions remain above zero, the world will continue to warm. The medium scenario ends up closer to 3.7C by 2150, while the high scenario ends up more or less matching the warming in the old RCP8.5 scenario despite an assumption of flattening or modestly declining emissions after 2100. [In short RCP8.5 is no longer’ plausible for 2100, but it is for 2150!]
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Timber is worth $1.5 trillion US Dollars annually with demand rising, but wildfires increasingly threaten production. Plantations occupy 3% of forests globally and produce 33% of the world’s timber, but a critical question is whether they are more vulnerable to stand-replacing wildfires than natural production forests. We find plantations in temperate regions were twice as likely to suffer stand-replacing wildfires than natural production forests, including in vital timber-producing nations like China and Russia. Plantations in tropical regions showed no clear effect. Given increasing global reliance on plantation timber, preventing wildfires through landscape-level planning, fire management, and increased plantation diversity is critical for global wood security. [And carbon sequestration!]
GREENING
- Nearly 30 new utility-scale solar factories started production in the
U.S. last year, reaching a high enough capacity to supply nearly twice
the expected demand for photovoltaic modules through the end of the
decade. The country now has the capacity to produce more than 60 gigawatts of
panel modules per year, enough to meet forecast demand through 2030 of
just over 35 gigawatts per year nearly twice over. The U.S. is also growing self-sufficient on batteries. Last year, the
country expanded its manufacturing base enough to meet battery demand
with domestic modules, putting the industry on track to do so with
domestic cells as well by the end of this year. More… - The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday voted overwhelmingly in favor of a climate justice resolution championed by the small Pacific Island nation of Vanuatu. The resolution welcomes the historic advisory opinion on climate change issued by the International Court of Justice in July 2025 and calls upon U.N. member states to act upon the court’s unanimous guidance, which clarified that addressing the climate crisis is not optional but rather is a legal duty under multiple sources of international law.
- A sea of solar panels is rapidly engulfing one of the world’s largest salt deserts. By 2029, nearly 60 million panels will cover 280 square miles of India’s Rann of Kutch, extending right up to the border with Pakistan. The Khavda solar park is set to be the world’s largest and most powerful supplier of electricity from the sun, with a generating capacity of 30 gigawatts — 30 times the size of a typical coal or nuclear power station and enough to power Austria. Analysts say the world’s most populous nation is on the verge of becoming the first major country to power its industrialization predominantly with solar energy.
- The New Hampshire legislature passed SB 540 last week, which allows utility customers to connect solar devices up to 1.2 kW without seeking approval or permission from utilities. The bill now awaits approval from New Hampshire Governor Kelly Ayotte. In total, more than 30 states have considered similar legislation. This includes California, which is the largest market for residential solar installations, where the State Senate passed the Plug and Play Solar Act by a 35-1 vote.
- Democratic and Republican governors from Mountain West states launch an initiative aimed at tapping an estimated 200 GW of geothermal energy in the region by streamlining permitting and sharing data between states. (Canary Media) [One gigawatt would power a city the size of New Orleans.]
- Nineteen new wind turbines will produce as much electricity as 400 old turbines in California’s Altamont Pass. The U.S. could more than double its onshore wind capacity with no new land via “repowering.”
CLIMATE DESPOLIATION
- Ecologists are concerned that the war in the Middle East risks creating an environmental disaster, as satellite images show that the number of oil slicks in the Persian Gulf has increased significantly since the beginning of the conflict in the region in late February.
- $30m an hour: that’s the pure, unearned profits banked by the world’s top 100 oil and gas companies in the first month of the conflict in Iran, purely due to the spike in the oil price. I revealed this exclusive analysis, commissioned by the Guardian, in April – while it was based on the best data in the industry, it was an estimate. Now the first numbers are in, and that $30m may have been a major underestimate. Shell’s profit for the first three months of 2026 more than doubled to $6.9bn, as did BP’s, to $3.2bn. TotalEnergies profits also surged by more than 50%, up to $5.8bn.
- The Energy Information Agency’s tracking program, known as the Residential Energy Consumption Survey, tells a clear story: In 2020, nearly one in four Americans reported some form of energy insecurity, meaning they were either unable to afford to use heating or cooling equipment, pay their energy bills, or pay for other necessities due to energy costs. By 2024, the most recent data available, that number had risen to a third — and two-thirds of households with incomes under $10,000. In 2024 alone, utilities sent 94.9 million final shutoff notices to residential electricity customers. This means people are also less able to afford energy efficiency upgradeslike newer appliances, smart thermostats, or solar panels – all key to the energy transition
- A group of the world’s leading climate scientists are warning governments and the livestock industry against adopting an “accounting trick” that will imperil the all-out global effort required to control heat-trapping emissions.
DARK AGE CLIMATE POLITICS
Elon Musk is operating on a different scale, and planet. The SpaceX CEO’s compensation has been tied to whether he can succeed in building colonies on Mars and data centers in orbit. Musk owns about 5.1 billion shares in SpaceX, as well as roughly 350 million options with a strike price of $8.39. That makes him all but certain to become the world’s first trillionaire.
In its Quarterly State of the Market report for PJM, the region’s Independent Market Monitor warned that data centers have caused “very large” and irreversible price impacts on customers throughout the thirteen-state region. The monitor warned of further, larger price impacts if the region fails to make significant changes before the June 2026 capacity auction. The Monitor recommended that data centers and large load customers bring their own generation, or be required to curtail their load.
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Take Action!
- Protest the Governor’s new Cap and Invest plan which gives billions to oil and gas installations, means more emissions, and cuts two billion from the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which pays for multiple emissions reducing programs. Add your name to a petition here.
- If you have the time, attend the CARB Board meeting this Thursday and speak out in opposition to this new plan. You can sign up to be notified of when the meeting starts on the same website. More information on the issue here.