AI will do more for fossil fuels than renewables: “We model AI as a bidirectional productivity amplifier in a global computable general equilibrium model, quantifying both enabled emissions from fossil fuel productivity gains and avoided emissions from renewables productivity gains. Under parallel adoption scenarios, net annual CO₂ emissions increase by 0.47–1.8 gigatonnes (1.2–4.8% of 2024 global energy-related CO₂ emissions). Enabled emissions exceed avoided emissions whenever fossil-sector gains are nonzero; net emissions reductions require renewables gains 4–5× greater than fossil fuel gains. Absent policy steering, AI’s modeled effects increase the carbon intensity of the global economy and reinforce fossil fuel incumbency—outcomes that current analytical and governance frameworks do not fully capture.” Peer-reviewed article is here and more general explanation here. Use of AI to produce more oil and gas could create 3.3 to 13.3 times more climate pollution than powering AI’s data centers. On the low end, these tools could enable additional yearly carbon emissions equal to Mexico’s. On the high end, they could enable yearly climate pollution equal to Russia’s—the world’s fourth-largest emitting country.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) [an Atlantic current which controls much of the weather in many parts of the world], a tipping element of the climate system, currently has an estimated global warming threshold for collapse of +4.0 °C (uncertainty range 1.4–8 °C). However, such a threshold may not be meaningful because AMOC stability depends on the rate of radiative forcing change, not a set temperature. Using a slow CO2 ramp climate model simulation, we explicitly demonstrate the AMOC remains stable up to +5.5 °C of global warming. By contrast, under faster CO2 ramps, the AMOC collapses at substantially lower warming levels (+2 °C). Our findings demonstrate rate-induced AMOC tipping and imply that limiting the rate of emissions is critical for reducing the risk of an AMOC collapse.
GREENING
New York Governor Kathy Hochul and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced Monday that they, along with the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, will lead a new pilot program to study whether thermal energy networks could help cool subway stations. The $800,000 pilot study will be funded using revenue from New York City’s congestion-pricing program, which charges drivers a fee to enter any part of Manhattan at or below 60th Street. Thermal energy systems typically use a network of underground water-filled pipes to move and regulate heat across buildings and other infrastructure. Because temperatures deep underground are relatively stable, these systems can use the Earth as a source for heating buildings and cooling the subway.
Solar and renewables are way ahead in new energy brought on line this year. Dan Gearino of Inside Climate News does the analysis. Utility-scale solar leads by a mile, followed by batteries. Fossil fuels, not so much.
CLIMATE DESPOLIATION
As part of its Pecos County, Texas data center campus, tech giant Amazon said it will power it with “new on-site generation.” It wants to install 35 gas-powered turbines to generate up to 7.65 GW of electricity on-site, and it would be permitted to release as much as 33 million tons of CO2 per year, 9% of California’s total emissions. Instantly, this facility would become the most polluting power plant in the United States.
A weather station in central Shanghai recorded over 12 inches of rain in 24 hours, its highest 24-hour rainfall in more than 150 years of records, as more than a million people were moved to safety across eastern China as powerful Typhoon Dolphin made landfall.
Lake Mead, the Nation’s Largest Reservoir, Is Smaller Than Ever. Water levels in the reservoir, which sits behind the Hoover Dam, are at record lows. A continued drop would imperil water supplies for more than 25 million people and cut electricity from the dam. The record, first broken on Thursday night and then again on the following days as the water level continued to fall, is the latest warning of the Colorado River’s dire condition.
Allianz Research, an arm of the global insurance company, analyzed the likely economic impact over the next five years if they looked like the five hottest years from 2014 to 2024. The economic output of the most exposed countries, including France, Japan, Italy, Germany and Spain, would be 5 to 7 percent lower than their base-line trajectories by 2030. Across Europe, the Allianz Research authors found that annual government deficits would rise by 0.5 percent of gross domestic product, potentially destabilizing the debt loads of the worst-affected countries. All this is exclusive of actual fire and storm damages.
A new study warns that nature loss – the failure of natural systems such as wild pollination or marine fisheries – could cause economic disruption over the next few years that would add US$162 billion per year to the sovereign debt-servicing burdens of 23 countries. China and India were found to be most vulnerable. Co-author Matthew Agarwala says the study’s two biggest surprises were “how far behind the financial system is on developing hard numbers around nature-related risk” and “how large the effects could be.” Read more »
This year’s huge El Niño isn’t expected to reach full strength until December, but it has already caused dry spells and crop failures on three continents. The modeling all puts this year’s El Niño as close to or bigger than any previous one (independent of any climate change).
The United States is rapidly approaching a two-decade streak as the world’s No. 1 producer of natural gas. The U.S. held the top spot between 2009 and 2024, the latest year for which the U.S. Energy Information Administration has data. But America pumped record volumes of natural gas last year. And now the federal energy research agency forecasts 2026 will be another record year.
DARK AGE CLIMATE POLITICS
The National Coal Council, an advisory group that includes executives from coal mining companies and major U.S. utilities, met with Trump administration officials last week and delivered 19 recommendations. One of its key requests is for the government to issue grants and loans to build the first new U.S. coal plants in over a decade. But the industry also seeks intervention to keep existing coal plants running, including federal government power purchase agreements and the suspension of environmental protections. Trump administration officials were on the same page. “There’s no road for a great, prosperous America without saving the coal plants we have and doing everything we can to remove barriers that can open up the possibility to expand our coal fleet,” said Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who has committed to invest $850 million in existing or new coal facilities.
Colorado ranchers file a brief with the U.S. Supreme Court supporting Boulder’s lawsuit seeking to hold petroleum corporations liable for climate change-related disasters, saying wildfire, drought, and extreme weather jeopardize their livelihoods. (Colorado Newsline)
U.S. Sens. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) and Angus King (I-Maine) propose legislation that would reward offshore wind developers who reject Trump administration buyouts with an expedited path to construction. It would specifically “require the … (DOI) to offer surrendered (offshore wind) lease areas to adjacent offshore wind leaseholders at the original per‑acre auction price, without requiring Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) approval or issuance.” (Times-Standard, news release)
After the Trump administration accused New York state of fast-tracking solar farms on prime farmland, New York leaders fired back last week, saying that renewables “empower our farmers to keep their land in use and in their family, while avoiding the threat of permanent conversion or abandonment.” That’s because farmers can lease a plot to solar developers and return it to agricultural use at the end of the array’s life…“A recent study by Cornell found that the overwhelming majority of farmers who received solar lease payments used that income to continue or even expand farming on their land, not to exit farming or scale back operations,” the leaders wrote.
Take Action!
Less than 90 days to the mid-terms. Donations help most if they not at the last minute. If you have the means to do so, winning the House and the Senate are the most important actions we can take. There are many ways to donate that don’t automatically support the Democratic party. Flip the Vote is one that works with grass roots organizations to organize, another is Oath.vote that uses smart analysis to pick candidates. If money is in short supply writing letters for Vote Forward’s new campaign to reach young voters is an option.
Take your pick from many possibilities. All of us need to feel we have done what we can for the climate in this dark political age!
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