The abstract of a paper at an American Statistical Association meeting on August 10 was brief but ominous – “The world’s population will increase from today’s 7.3 billion people to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion at century’s end, experts in demographic forecasting have predicted.” That will be an increase of 275 pct over the hundred years since 1950. Basing his paper on a recent report , John R. Wilmoth of the UN Population Division, explained that most of the increase will be in Africa, rising from the current population of 1.2 billion people to more than 3.4 billion by 2100. Due to a high fertility rate the population of Africa’s most populous nation, Nigeria, is expected to increase from 182 million in 2015 to over 400 million by 2100. Asia, currently at 4.4 billion people, is expected to peak around the middle of the century at 5.3 billion, and then decline to around 4.9 billion by the end of the century. India is forecast to be the most populous nation at 1.73 billion around 2070 and decline to 1.7 billion by 2100.
The relationship between population growth and climate disruption is interesting. Some argue that population control will not solve the climate problem – it is consumerism that needs to be checked. Others suggest that the proposed modest reductions in carbon emissions will soon be overwhelmed by the use of fossil fuels to meet the rising energy demands of the rapidly increasing populations of Africa and India.
NOTE: See a more detailed article about population, consumption, and the U.S. energy mess posted on this Web site in 2011.