{"id":85,"date":"2015-04-09T17:57:03","date_gmt":"2015-04-09T09:57:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/world.350.org\/350-hong-kong\/?p=85"},"modified":"2016-12-21T04:32:09","modified_gmt":"2016-12-20T20:32:09","slug":"%e5%be%9e%e5%8a%89%e6%85%88%e6%ac%a3%e7%9a%84%e6%85%a8%e6%ad%8e%e5%88%b0-wall-e%e7%9a%84%e9%9c%87%e6%92%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/world.350.org\/350-hong-kong\/2015\/04\/09\/85\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5f9e\u5289\u6148\u6b23\u7684\u6168\u6b4e\u5230 Wall-E\u7684\u9707\u64bc"},"content":{"rendered":"\"\u0412\u0430\u043b\u043b\u0438\"<\/a>\n

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\u7b46\u8005\u81ea\u5e7c\u4fbf\u611b\u4e0a\u5929\u6587\u548c\u89c0\u661f\uff0c\u4ea6\u5f88\u5feb\u6210\u70ba\u4e86\u4e00\u540d\u592a\u7a7a\u63a2\u96aa\u7684\u71b1\u70c8\u652f\u6301\u8005\uff08\u82f1\u6587\u7684\u6240\u8b02 space enthusiast\uff09\u3002\u5c0f\u5b78\u516d\u5e74\u7d1a\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u4e00\u4f4d\u597d\u540c\u5b78\u7684\u5bb6\u4e2d\u9996\u6b21\u770b\u5230 Star Trek\u9019\u5957\u96fb\u8996\u5287\u96c6\uff08\u9999\u6e2f\u9e97\u7684\u96fb\u8996\u516c\u53f8\u628a\u5b83\u914d\u4e86\u7cb5\u8a9e\u5728\u4e2d\u6587\u53f0\u64ad\u51fa\uff0c\u4e26\u540d\u70ba\u300c\u661f\u7a7a\u5947\u9047\u300d\uff09\uff0c\u81ea\u6b64\u5373\u6210\u70ba\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u7d42\u751f\u4e0d\u6e1d\u7684\u300c\u661f\u7a7a\u5947\u9047\u8ff7\u300d\uff08Trekkie\u662f\u4e5f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f88\u5feb\u5730\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u4f46\u770b\u96fb\u8996\uff0c\u4e5f\u5927\u770b\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa\u3002\u5c0d\u6211\u5f71\u97ff\u6700\u6df1\u7684\u4e00\u4f4d\u4f5c\u5bb6\u662f\u897f\u65b9\u79d1\u5e7b\u5927\u5e2b\u514b\u62c9\u514b\uff08Arthur C. Clarke\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u8457\u4f5c\u56fa\u7136\u4ee4\u6211\u770b\u5f97\u5982\u75f4\u5982\u9189\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u6709\u95dc\u592a\u7a7a\u63a2\u96aa\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u5247\u66f4\u4ee4\u70ba\u6211\u6fc0\u52d5\u548c\u56ae\u5f80\u3002\uff08\u8b1b\u5ea7\u7fcc\u65e5\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u79d1\u5e7b\u6703\u63a5\u5f85\u5927\u5289\u6642\u6211\u5f9e\u4ed6\u53e3\u4e2d\u5f97\u6089\uff0c\u5c0d\u4ed6\u5f71\u97ff\u6700\u6df1\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u4f5c\u5bb6\u4ea6\u6b63\u662f\u514b\u62c9\u514b\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u4e5d\u4e03\u4e8c\u5e74\u6211\u5347\u4e0a\u4e2d\u5b78\u4e94\u5e74\u7d1a\uff0c\u73ed\u4e3b\u4efb\u517c\u82f1\u6587\u8001\u5e2b\u662f\u4f4d\u65b0\u4f86\u7684\u5916\u85c9\u5973\u58eb Mrs. Bee. \u4e0d\u4e45\u5979\u5728\u4f5c\u6587\u5802\u4e0a\u201c\u51fa\u4e86\u201d\u9053\u300c\u81ea\u7531\u984c\u300d\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u4efb\u7531\u6211\u5011\u5404\u81ea\u6311\u9078\u5beb\u4f5c\u7684\u984c\u76ee\u3002\u6211\u65bc\u662f\u9078\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6211\u6700\u95dc\u5fc3\u7684\u984c\u76ee\uff1a\u201cIs The Money Spent On Space Wasted?\u201d\u3002 \u6587\u4e2d\u632a\u7528\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u514b\u62c9\u514b\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u897f\u65b9\u4f5c\u5bb6\uff08\u5305\u62ecH.G. Wells\uff09\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u5927\u529b\u8ad6\u8b49\uff08\u7576\u7136\u662f\u4ee5\u4e00\u500b\u4e2d\u5b78\u4e94\u5e74\u7d1a\u5b78\u751f\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u4f86\u8aaa\uff09\u592a\u7a7a\u63a2\u96aa\u6703\u70ba\u4eba\u985e\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u597d\u8655\uff0c\u4e26\u99c1\u65a5\u7576\u6642\u4ecd\u7136\u9817\u70ba\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u300c\u592a\u7a7a\u63a2\u96aa\u662f\u6d69\u5927\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\u6d6a\u8cbb\u300d\u9019\u7a2e\u89c0\u9ede\u3002\u6211\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u201c\u96c4\u8faf\u6027\u201d\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u662f\uff1a\u300c\u54e5\u502b\u5e03\u555f\u7a0b\u5411\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u9032\u767c\u6642\uff0c\u6b50\u6d32\u4ecd\u7136\u5145\u6eff\u7d1b\u4e82\u4e26\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u503c\u5f97\u53bb\u505a\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u6211\u5011\u7e3d\u8981\u628a\u9019\u4e9b\u4e8b\u60c5\u505a\u5b8c\u624d\u9032\u884c\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u90a3\u672b\u6211\u5011\u4eca\u5929\u6240\u8a8d\u8b58\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u4fbf\u53ef\u80fd\u5f9e\u4f86\u4e0d\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u300d \uff08\u5168\u6587\u5df2\u6536\u9304\u5728\u62d9\u8457 Rambling Through the Universe\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n

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\u4e00\u4e5d\u4e03\u4e5d\u5e74\u5c3e\uff0c\u592a\u7a7a\u9928\u8209\u8fa6\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u516c\u958b\u7684\u5929\u6587\u666e\u53ca\u8b1b\u5ea7\u7cfb\u5217\uff0c\u6211\u9078\u53d6\u7684\u4e3b\u8b1b\u984c\u76ee\u662f\u300c\u592a\u7a7a\u6b96\u6c11\u65b0\u5929\u5730\u300d\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u4ecb\u7d39\u4e86\u666e\u6797\u65af\u9813\u7269\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6\u5967\u5c3c\u723e\uff08Gerald O\u2019Neil\uff09\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300c\u592a\u7a7a\u57ce\u5e02\u300d\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531G. Harry Stine\u7b49\u4eba\u6240\u5021\u8b70\u7684\u300c\u592a\u7a7a\u5de5\u696d\u5316\u300d\uff08space industrialization\uff09\u7684\u4e3b\u5f35\u3002\u4e00\u4e5d\u516b\u56db\u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u518d\u4e3b\u8b1b\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u540d\u53eb\u300c\u661f\u969b\u822a\u884c\u7684\u4e8b\u5be6\u8207\u81c6\u6e2c\u300d\u7684\u516c\u958b\u8b1b\u5ea7\uff08\u96d6\u7136\u90a3\u5df2\u662f\u4f5c\u70ba\u5609\u8cd3\u8eab\u4efd\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5176\u6642\u6211\u5df2\u96e2\u958b\u4e86\u592a\u7a7a\u9928\u800c\u8f49\u5230\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u6c23\u8c61\u5c40[\u7a31\u300c\u7687\u5bb6\u9999\u6e2f\u5929\u6587\u53f0\u300d] \u5de5\u4f5c\uff09\u3002\u53ca\u5f8c\uff0c\u6211\u628a\u6709\u95dc\u6750\u6599\u6574\u7406\u4e26\u65bc\u300a\u83ef\u50d1\u65e5\u5831\u300b\u6bcf\u6708\u4e00\u671f\u7684\u300c\u5929\u6587\u7248\u300d\u9023\u8f09\u767c\u8868\uff0c\u4e00\u4e5d\u4e5d\u4e8c\u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u66f4\u628a\u6587\u7a3f\u6574\u7406\u4ea4\u7531\u5546\u52d9\u5370\u66f8\u9928\u51fa\u7248\uff0c\u66f8\u540d\u70ba\u300a\u591c\u7a7a\u7684\u547c\u559a\u2014\u661f\u969b\u901a\u822a\u300b\uff0c\u6211\u6562\u5927\u81bd\u7684\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u8fc4\u4eca\u70ba\u6b62\u6700\u5168\u9762\u548c\u6df1\u5165\u5730\u63a2\u8a0e\u300c\u661f\u969b\u822a\u884c\u300d\uff08interstellar travel \u800c\u4e0d\u662finterplanetary travel\uff09\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u7684\u4e2d\u6587\u8457\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u6211\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8981\u5982\u6b64\u8a73\u76e1\u5730\u4ea4\u5f85\u9019\u4e9b\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u5462\uff1f\u6211\u7684\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u8aaa\u660e\u6211\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5982\u4f55\u71b1\u8877\u65bc\u592a\u7a7a\u63a2\u96aa\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u4e00\u4e5d\u516b\u96f6\u5e74\u300c\u661f\u7a7a\u5947\u9047\u300d\u7684\u5927\u96fb\u5f71\uff08Star Trek \u2013 The Motion Picture\uff09\u4e0a\u6620\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u5f71\u9662\u88e1\u76ee\u7779\u95ca\u5225\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u300c\u5192\u96aa\u865f\u300d\uff08Enterprise\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u7576\u5e74\u9e97\u7684\u96fb\u8996\u7684\u8b6f\u540d\uff1b\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u4eba\u5927\u591a\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u4f01\u696d\u865f\u300d\uff09\u5728\u300c\u592a\u7a7a\u8239\u5862\u300d\u7684\u96c4\u59ff\u6642\uff0c\u7981\u4e0d\u8457\u71b1\u6dda\u76c8\u7736\u2026\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u4e8c\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u7b46\u8005\u5176\u5be6\u4e5f\u7d93\u6b77\u4e86\u300c\u5927\u5289\u300d\u9019\u500b\u968e\u6bb5\u3002\u6211\u65bc\u4e00\u4e5d\u4e5d\u4e00\u5e74\u52d5\u7b46\u800c\u65bc\u4e5d\u4e8c\u5e74\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u82f1\u6587\u77ed\u7bc7\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8aaa Prometheus Unbound\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4fbf\u5df2\u5047\u8a2d\u5728\u4e00\u5834\u5168\u7403\u6027\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u6d69\u52ab\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u8f49\u7531\u4e00\u500b\u540d\u53eb\u300c\u84cb\u4e9e\u8b70\u6703\u300d\uff08Gaia Council\uff09\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6b0a\u529b\u7d44\u7e54\u6240\u7d71\u6cbb\u3002\u9019\u500b\u7d44\u7e54\u7981\u6b62\u4e00\u5207\u79d1\u5b78\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ea6\u7981\u6b62\u4eba\u985e\u5c0d\u592a\u7a7a\u7684\u63a2\u7d22\uff0c\u60c5\u666f\u8207\u300c\u5927\u5289\u300d\u6240\u8aaa\u7684\u300c\u653e\u68c4\u4e86\u592a\u7a7a\u800c\u628a\u672a\u4f86\u5bc4\u6258\u65bc\u74b0\u4fdd\u300d\u6709\u4e5d\u6210\u76f8\u4f3c\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6545\u4e8b\u5f8c\u4f86\u88ab\u8b6f\u6210\u4e2d\u6587\uff08\u5c31\u53eb\u3008\u89e3\u653e\u4e86\u7684\u666e\u7f85\u7c73\u4fee\u65af\u3009\uff09\u4e26\u65bc\u4e00\u4e5d\u4e5d\u4e8c\u5e74\u5728\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u300a\u5e7b\u8c61\u300b\u96dc\u8a8c\u767c\u8868\u3002\u53ca\u5f8c\u5247\u5148\u5f8c\u6536\u9304\u65bc\u6211\u7684\u300a\u6311\u6230\u6642\u7a7a\u300b\u548c\u300a\u6cf0\u62c9\u6587\u660e\u6d88\u5931\u4e4b\u8b0e\u300b\u9019\u5169\u672c\u8457\u4f5c\u4e4b\u5167\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e14\u770b\u6211\u7576\u5e74\uff08\u900f\u904e\u4e86\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e3b\u4eba\u7fc1\uff09\u662f\u600e\u9ebc\u8aaa\u7684\uff1a\u300c\u4eba\u985e\u7576\u524d\u6700\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7684\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u4f60\u65b9\u624d\u6240\u8aaa\u7684\u90a3\u7a2e\u9032\u53d6\u7cbe\u795e\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u9019\u7a2e\u6975\u7aef\u5167\u5411\u7684\u5fc3\u614b\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u73fe\u653f\u6b0a\u6240\u9f13\u5439\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5f37\u8feb\u4eba\u5011\u53bb\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u3002\u6b63\u7576\u4eba\u985e\u958b\u59cb\u638c\u63e1\u4e86\u99b3\u9a01\u65bc\u661f\u969b\u7a7a\u9593\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u4e4b\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u537b\u653e\u68c4\u4e86\u6574\u500b\u5b87\u5b99\uff01\u300d<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u5df2\u7d93\u6709\u4e86\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\u3002\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u6b63\u5982\u51f1\u56e0\u65af\uff08John Maynard Keynes\uff09\u88ab\u554f\u5230\u4ed6\u70ba\u4f55\u6539\u8b8a\u4e86\u521d\u8877\u6642\u6240\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u7576\u4e8b\u5be6\u6539\u8b8a\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u81ea\u7136\u5c31\u6539\u8b8a\u6211\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u54ea\u9ebc\u4f60\u5462\uff1f\u300d<\/p>\n

\u5728\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5c31\u79d1\u5e7b\u5275\u4f5c\u7684\u5c64\u9762\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u3008\u89e3\u653e\u4e86\u7684\u666e\u7f85\u7c73\u4fee\u65af\u3009\u88e1\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u4ecd\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5f88\u4e0d\u932f\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u8a2d\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9577\u9060\u4f86\u8aaa\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u4f46\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u73fe\u5be6\u4e2d\u7684\u4e8b\u614b\u767c\u5c55 \u2014 \u7279\u5225\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u7684\u885d\u64ca \u2014 \u5df2\u7d93\u9060\u9060\u8d85\u4e4e\u6211\u5011\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u548c\u74b0\u4fdd\u5206\u5b50\uff09\u7684\u60f3\u8c61\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u9019\u9ebc\u8aaa\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5168\u4eba\u985e\u4eca\u5929\u5373\u80fd\u6392\u9664\u842c\u96e3\u3001\u540c\u5fc3\u6233\u529b\u5730\u53bb\u5c0d\u6297\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u7121\u6cd5\u5b8c\u5168\u9632\u6b62\u707d\u96e3\u7684\u9678\u7e8c\u767c\u751f\uff08\u56e0\u70ba\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u5b58\u5728\u8457\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u300c\u6642\u6eef\u300d\u6548\u61c9\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u53ea\u662f\u80fd\u5920\u963b\u6b62\u6700\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u707d\u96e3\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u5011\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e5f\u4e0d\u505a\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6bc0\u6ec5\u6027\u7684\u707d\u96e3\u5c07\u6703\u63a5\u8e35\u800c\u4f86\uff0c\u81f3\u4ee4\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u5169\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\u6210\u70ba\u300c\u5c0f\u5deb\u898b\u5927\u5deb\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u65cf\u985e\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u6ec5\u4ea1\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u5341\u5206\u4e4b\u4f4e\u3002\u4f46\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u4eba\u9053\u707d\u96e3\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u6230\u722d\uff09\u5c07\u6703\u596a\u53bb\u7121\u6578\u4eba\u7684\u5bf6\u8cb4\u751f\u547d\uff0c\u800c\u52ab\u5f8c\u9918\u751f\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u6587\u660e\u5927\u5e45\u5012\u9000\u751a\u81f3\u793e\u6703\u79e9\u5e8f\u5d29\u6f70\u7684\u3001\u5f31\u8089\u5f37\u98df\u7684\u91ce\u883b\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u8377\u91cc\u6d3b\u65bc\u4e03\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u63a8\u51fa\u7684\u96fb\u5f71 Mad Max (\u5728\u6e2f\u4e0a\u6620\u6642\u7a31\u300a\u516c\u8def\u6230\u58eb\u300b\uff09\u53ca\u5176\u7e8c\u96c6\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u773c\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e9b\u4fd7\u6587\u5316\u7684\u5a1b\u6a02\u7522\u54c1\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u82e5\u8a8d\u771f\u5730\u8003\u5bdf\u4e00\u4e0b\u73fe\u4eca\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u7576\u6703\u770b\u51fa\u4e09\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u9810\u8a00\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u7684\u66f4\u5bcc\u8b66\u4e16\u610f\u7fa9\uff1a\u6211\u5011\u771f\u7684\u6562\u8aaa\u96fb\u5f71\u4e2d\u7684\u60c5\u7bc0\u4e0d\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u55ce\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u6bd4\u96fb\u5f71\u66f4\u65e9\u7684\u9810\u8a00\u662fJohn Brunner\u65bc1968\u5e74\u6240\u767c\u8868\u7684\u5de8\u90e8\u982d\u74b0\u5883\u707d\u96e3\u5c0f\u8aaa Stand On Zanzibar \u3002\u5b83\u6bd4\u300c\u7f85\u99ac\u4ff1\u6a02\u90e8\u300d\uff08Club of Rome\uff09\u65bc1972\u5e74\u767c\u8868\u7684\u7d93\u5178\u8ad6\u8457\u300a\u589e\u9577\u7684\u6975\u9650\u300b\uff08The Limits to Growth\uff09\u9084\u8981\u65e9\u56db\u5e74\u3002\u800c\u5728\u6574\u6574\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u5f8c\u7684\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u5c0f\u8aaa\u5bb6\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u81c6\u6e2c\u9084\u662f\u5b78\u8853\u7406\u8ad6\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u96fb\u8166\u6f14\u7b97\uff0c\u90fd\u6b63\u5728\u4e00\u6b65\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u61c9\u9a57\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5371\u8a00\u8073\u807d\u55ce\uff1f\u8981\u77e5\u4eba\u985e\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u5927\u96e3\u81e8\u982d\uff0c\u5404\u4f4d\u53ef\u4ee5\u95b1\u8b80\u6211\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u559a\u919269\u5104\u96bb\u9752\u86d9\u2014\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u5167\u5e55\u62ab\u9732\u300b\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u672c\u5beb\u7d66\u5e74\u8f15\u4eba\u770b\u7684\u66f8\u7c4d\uff0c\u6211\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u5df2\u76e1\u91cf\u628a\u6211\u7684\u60b2\u89c0\u7d50\u8ad6\u6de1\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u514d\u5e74\u8f15\u4eba\u6389\u9032\u6d88\u6975\u7684\u6ce5\u5751\u88e1\u3002\uff08\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u96d6\u7136\u4e5f\u6709\u89f8\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u74b0\u5883\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f46\u4e3b\u8981\u9084\u662f\u96c6\u4e2d\u65bc\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u5a01\u8105\uff0c\u8981\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u5730\u4e86\u89e3\u4eba\u985e\u5c0d\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u7834\u58de\uff0c\u7b46\u8005\u6975\u529b\u63a8\u85a6\u5927\u5bb6\u95b1\u8b80 James Gustave Speth\u6240\u5beb\u7684 The Bridge at the Edge of the World\uff082008\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531 Lester R. Brown \u6240\u5beb\u7684 World On the Edge\uff082011\uff09\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n

\u54ea\u9ebc\u9019\u662f\u5426\u8868\u793a\u6211\u4e0d\u518d\u652f\u6301\u592a\u7a7a\u63a2\u96aa\u5462\uff1f\u7576\u7136\u4e0d\u662f\uff01\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5728\u4e0a\u8ff0\u9019\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u5e95\u4e0b\uff0c\u592a\u7a7a\u63a2\u96aa\u66f4\u6709\u5176\u8feb\u5207\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u8acb\u4e0d\u8981\u8aa4\u6703\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u8feb\u5207\u6027\u7d55\u975e\u300c\u958b\u767c\u592a\u967d\u7cfb\u4ee5\u89e3\u6c7a\u7576\u524d\u7684\u554f\u984c\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7576\u6700\u5dee\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u51fa\u73fe\u800c\u6587\u660e\u5168\u9762\u5d29\u6f70\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u82e5\u662f\u7d93\u5df2\u5efa\u6210\u4e86\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u7d66\u81ea\u8db3\u7684\u592a\u7a7a\u57ce\u5e02\u3001\u6708\u7403\u57fa\u5730\u6216\u662f\u706b\u661f\u57fa\u5730\u7b49\uff0c\u90a3\u81f3\u5c11\u53ef\u4ee5\u70ba\u4eba\u985e\u4fdd\u5b58\u4e00\u9ede\u73fe\u4ee3\u6587\u660e\u7684\u300c\u8840\u8108\u300d\u2026\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5927\u5289\u5728\u8b1b\u5ea7\u88e1\u63d0\u5230\uff1a\u592a\u967d\u7cfb\u5167\u64c1\u6709\u5341\u842c\u500b\u5730\u7403\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\uff08\u9019\u61c9\u7576\u4f86\u81ea\u67d0\u4e9b\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u7684\u63a8\u7b97\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u7d55\u4e0d\u61f7\u7591\u9019\u500b\u8aaa\u6cd5\u3002\u554f\u984c\u662f\u300c\u9060\u6c34\u6551\u4e0d\u5f97\u8fd1\u706b\u300d\u9019\u500b\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u9053\u7406\u3002\u8a66\u60f3\u60f3\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u592a\u7a7a\u7a7f\u68ad\u6a5f\u8a08\u5283\u525b\u525b\u5283\u4e0a\u53e5\u865f\u7684\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u300c\u958b\u767c\u592a\u967d\u7cfb\u300d\u9019\u500b\u5145\u6eff\u96c4\u5fc3\u58ef\u5fd7\u7684\u865f\u53ec\u5982\u4f55\u80fd\u5920\u5e6b\u52a9\u6211\u5011\u89e3\u6c7a\u7576\u524d\u7684\u554f\u984c\u5462\uff1f\u53ea\u8981\u6211\u5011\u518d\u60f3\u60f3\uff1a\u8981\u628a\u4e00\u516c\u5678\u7684\u8ca0\u8f09\u9001\u4e0a\u592a\u7a7a\u6703\u88fd\u9020\u591a\u5c11\u516c\u5678\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4fbf\u6703\u66f4\u660e\u767d\u9019\u500b\u865f\u53ec\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u7684\u812b\u96e2\u73fe\u5be6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u65bc\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u958b\u59cb\u95dc\u6ce8\u74b0\u5883\u751f\u614b\u7684\u7834\u58de\u6642\uff0c\u9020\u5922\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u60f3\u5230\u4e8b\u60c5\u6703\u767c\u5c55\u5f97\u9019\u9ebc\u5feb\uff1a\u6bd4\u8d77\u4e8c\u5341\u4e16\u7d00\u521d\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u9ad8\u5c71\u51b0\u96ea\u81f3\u4eca\u5df2\u7d93\u6d88\u5931\u4e86\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u800c\u5317\u6975\u6d77\u51b0\u7684\u9762\u7a4d\u66f4\u662f\u7e2e\u6e1b\u4e86\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e8c\uff01\u6d77\u6d0b\u7684\u5347\u6eab\u548c\u9178\u5316\u5df2\u4ee4\u5168\u7403\u4e09\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u73ca\u745a\u5340\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3001\u897f\u4f2f\u5229\u4e9e\u7684\u5ee3\u95ca\u51cd\u571f\u5340\u57df\u5df2\u958b\u59cb\u51fa\u73fe\u878d\u5316\u4e26\u91cb\u51fa\u8f03\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u9084\u5371\u96aa\u767e\u500d\u7684\u7532\u70f7\u6c23\u9ad4\u2026\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u53cd\u5e38\u7684\u6f87\u3001\u65f1\u548c\u66b4\u70c8\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u70ba\u4e86\u65e5\u5e38\u65b0\u805e\u5831\u5c0e\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u99ed\u4eba\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u6eab\u5929\u6c23\u4e00\u6d6a\u63a5\u4e00\u6d6a\uff0c\u4e8c\u96f6\u96f6\u4e09\u5e74\u7684\u6b50\u6d32\u71b1\u6d6a\u596a\u53bb\u4e86\u8fd1\u4e94\u842c\u4eba\u7684\u6027\u547d\uff1b\u800c\u8607\u806f\u7684\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u5247\u5ba3\u7a31\uff0c\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e00\u96f6\u590f\u5929\u7684\u71b1\u6d6a\uff08\u6700\u9ad8\u6eab\u9054\u651d\u6c0f44\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u4e5f\u905439\u5ea6\uff09\uff0c\u4e43\u8607\u806f\u300c\u4e00\u5343\u5e74\u4f86\u6240\u672a\u898b\u300d\u3002\u4e0d\u7528\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u300c\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u6eab\u5929\u6c23\u300d\u5728\u6211\u570b\u4ea6\u6b63\u4e0d\u65b7\u8086\u8650\u548c\u60e1\u5316\uff0c\u4e26\u5c0d\u4eba\u6c11\u7684\u5065\u5eb7\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u751f\u7522\u5e36\u4f86\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n

\u54ea\u9ebc\u6211\u5011\u9084\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u6642\u9593\u4ee5\u529b\u633d\u72c2\u703e\uff1f\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7d55\u4e0d\u80fd\u8b93\u5927\u6c23\u4e2d\u7684\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6fc3\u5ea6\u8d85\u904e\u767e\u842c\u4efd\u4e4b\u56db\u767e\u4e94\u5341\uff08450 ppm\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e00\u65e6\u8d85\u904e\u6b64\u6578\uff0c\u5927\u81ea\u7136\u88e1\u4e0d\u5c11\u300c\u6b63\u53cd\u994b\u5faa\u74b0\u300d\uff08positive feedback loops\uff09\u5c07\u6703\u767c\u63ee\u4f5c\u7528\uff08\u5982\u51cd\u571f\u5168\u9762\u878d\u5316\u91cb\u51fa\u5de8\u91cf\u7532\u70f7\uff09\uff0c\u4ee4\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e00\u767c\u4e0d\u53ef\u6536\u62fe\uff08\u82f1\u8a9e\u4e2d\u7684\u6240\u8b02\u201creaching the point of no return\u201d\uff09\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u9019\u500b\u6fc3\u5ea6\u5df2\u9054 390 ppm\uff0c\u800c\u6fc3\u5ea6\u6b63\u4ee5\u6bcf\u5e74\u7d04 3 ppm \u7684\u901f\u7387\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6700\u591a\u53ea\u6709\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u6642\u9593\u529b\u633d\u72c2\u703e\u65bc\u65e2\u5012 \u2014 \u4ea6\u5373\u5c07\u6211\u5011\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5168\u9762\u300c\u53bb\u78b3\u5316\u300d\uff08de-carbonization of the economy\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7d55\u5c0d\u6c92\u6709\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u6642\u9593\u9019\u9ebc\u591a\uff01\u9019\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u56b4\u683c\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684 \u300c450 ppm\u8b66\u754c\u7dda\u300d\u6240\u6db5\u84cb\u7684\u4e0d\u55ae\u662f\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6fc3\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u5176\u4ed6\u6eab\u5ba4\u6c23\u9ad4\u5982\u7532\u70f7\uff08methane\uff09\u548c\u6c27\u5316\u4e9e\u6c2e\uff08nitrous oxide\uff09\u7b49\u7684\u300c\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u7576\u91cf\u300d\u6fc3\u5ea6\uff08CO2-equivalent concentration\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u6309\u7167\u4e00\u4e9b\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u6fc3\u5ea6\u5df2\u7d93\u5341\u5206\u63a5\u8fd1 440 ppm \u9019\u500b\u6578\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u591a\u7684\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u958b\u59cb\u5c0d 450 ppm\u9019\u500b\u7d93\u7531\u300c\u4e8c\u96f6\u96f6\u4e5d\u5e74\u54e5\u672c\u54c8\u6839\u6c23\u5019\u6703\u8b70\u300d\u6240\u78ba\u8a8d\u7684\u300c\u8b66\u754c\u7dda\u300d\u63d0\u51fa\u8cea\u7591\u3002\u9019\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u986f\u793a\uff0c450 ppm \u9019\u500b\u6c34\u5e73\u5be6\u5728\u592a\u5371\u96aa\u4e86\u3002\u771f\u6b63\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u61c9\u662f 350 ppm\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u8f03\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u9084\u8981\u4f4e 40 ppm\uff01\uff08\u5de5\u696d\u9769\u547d\u524d\u671f\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u7d04\u70ba 280 ppm\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n

\u65e2\u7136\u5df2\u7d93\u8d85\u8d8a\u4e86\u5b89\u5168\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u4e16\u754c\u4ecd\u672a\u9677\u5165\u5927\u707d\u96e3\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff1f\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u554f\u3002\u7b54\u6848\u6709\u5169\u500b\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u707d\u96e3\u5176\u5be6\u5df2\u7d93\u5728\u767c\u751f\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u6c23\u5019\u707d\u8b8a\u7684\u5c55\u73fe\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e0d\u6703\u50cf\u5730\u9707\u90a3\u6a23\u660e\u986f\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u76f8\u5c0d\u7de9\u6162\u7684\u6f38\u9032\u5f0f\u548c\u7d2f\u7a4d\u6027\u8b8a\u5316\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u4f7f\u4eba\u6389\u4ee5\u8f15\u5fc3\u610f\u5fd7\u9ebb\u75f9\uff0c\u4e5f\u6b63\u662f\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u300c\u6eab\u6c34\u716e\u9752\u86d9\u300d\u9019\u500b\u5bd3\u8a00\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u8cbc\u5207\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u7b54\u6848\u5728\u4e0a\u6587\u7d93\u5df2\u63d0\u53ca\uff0c\u90a3\u4fbf\u662f\u81ea\u7136\u754c\u88e1\u7684\u300c\u5ef6\u6eef\u6548\u61c9\u300d\uff08time-lag effect\uff09\u3002\u5728\u300a\u559a\u919269\u5104\u96bb\u9752\u86d9\u300b\u4e00\u66f8\u88e1\u6211\u7528\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c11\u4f8b\u5b50\u4f86\u8aaa\u660e\u9019\u500b\u9053\u7406\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u662f\u5824\u58e9\u51fa\u73fe\u88c2\u7e2b\u800c\u6700\u7d42\u5c0e\u81f4\u5d29\u6f70\u3002\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u9053\u7406\u7576\u7136\u662f\uff1a\u5f85\u5824\u58e9\u958b\u59cb\u5d29\u6f70\u6642\u624d\u4f5c\u51fa\u88dc\u6551\u9084\u6709\u7528\u55ce\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u7684\u78ba\uff0c\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u672a\u898b\u68fa\u6750\u4e0d\u61c2\u6d41\u6dda\u300d\uff0c\u707d\u52ab\u672a\u51fa\u73fe\u4e4b\u524d\u53eb\u4eba\u4f5c\u51fa\u9810\u9632\u63aa\u65bd\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u4e00\u4ef6\u6975\u5176\u56f0\u96e3\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u4e8c\u96f6\u96f6\u516b\u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5982\u662f\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\u7206\u767c\u7684\u524d\u5915\u4e5f\u5982\u662f\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u6578\u5e74\u524d\u89c0\u770b\u7531\u5a01\u723e\u65af\uff08H.G. Wells\uff09\u7684\u665a\u5e74\u540d\u8457 The Shape of Things To Come\u6539\u7de8\u800c\u6210\u7684\u96fb\u5f71 Things to Come\uff0c\u4ee4\u6211\u5370\u8c61\u6700\u70ba\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u7247\u4e2d\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u96fb\u5f71\u958b\u9996\u6642\u6578\u500b\u5287\u4e2d\u4eba\u5728\u722d\u8ad6\u4e00\u5834\u6b50\u6d32\u5927\u6230\u662f\u5426\u5373\u5c07\u4f86\u81e8\u3002\u8981\u77e5\u5a01\u6c0f\u7684\u5c0f\u8aaa\u6210\u66f8\u65bc\u4e00\u4e5d\u4e09\u4e09\u5e74\u800c\u96fb\u5f71\u5b8c\u6210\u65bc\u4e00\u4e5d\u4e09\u516d\u5e74\uff0c\u5176\u6642\u7684\u897f\u65b9\u4eba\u5927\u90fd\u4e0d\u4fe1\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u4e00\u5834\u5e2d\u5377\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u6230\u722d\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u7528\u8aaa\u4e00\u5834\u5e2d\u5377\u5168\u7403\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\u3002\u5a01\u723e\u65af\u4e0d\u6127\u70ba\u7368\u5177\u96bb\u773c\u7684\u79d1\u5e7b\u5927\u5e2b\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5728\u96fb\u5f71\u88e1\u5927\u6230\u679c\u771f\u7206\u767c\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u5f80\u5f8c\u60c5\u7bc0\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u7559\u5f85\u5927\u5bb6\u81ea\u5df1\u627e\u5c0f\u8aaa\u6216\u96fb\u5f71\u4f86\u89c0\u770b\u597d\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7121\u7368\u6709\u5076\uff0c\u5728\u89c0\u770b\u9019\u90e8\u96fb\u5f71\u7684\u524d\u5f8c\uff0c\u6211\u6b63\u5728\u770b\u9322\u937e\u66f8\u6240\u5beb\u7684\u77ed\u7bc7\u5c0f\u8aaa\u96c6\u300a\u4eba\u3001\u7378\u3001\u9b3c\u300b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u6545\u4e8b\uff08\u540d\u7a31\u5df2\u5fd8\u4e86\uff09\u8b1b\u8ff0\u4e00\u73ed\u597d\u53cb\u5728\u71b1\u70c8\u722d\u8ad6\u65e5\u672c\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u6703\u767c\u52d5\u4fb5\u83ef\u6230\u722d\uff08\u6545\u4e8b\u4e43\u5beb\u65bc\u65e5\u672c\u4fb5\u83ef\u7684\u524d\u5915\uff09\u3002\u800c\u4ee4\u6211\u5370\u8c61\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9322\u6c0f\u4ee5\u4ed6\u4ee4\u4eba\u6298\u670d\u7684\u624d\u60c5\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u4eba\u7269\u9053\u51fa\u4e86\u5404\u7a2e\u6b63\u3001\u53cd\u5169\u9762\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u3002\u4ee4\u4eba\u611f\u6168\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u4fe1\u6230\u722d\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u7adf\u662f\u5982\u65af\u7684\u60c5\u7406\u517c\u5099\u632f\u632f\u6709\u8a5e\u2026\u3002\u4eba\u985e\u771f\u7684\u8981\u898b\u5230\u4e00\u6392\u4e00\u6392\u7684\u68fa\u6750\u624d\u61c2\u5f97\u6d41\u6dda\uff1f\u771f\u7684\u8981\u898b\u5230\u5c4d\u6a6b\u904d\u91ce\u624d\u61c2\u5f97\u9003\u547d\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u73fe\u5728\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u8f49\u904e\u4f86\u770b\u770b\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u5728\u9762\u5c0d\u5982\u6b64\u6d69\u5927\u7684\u707d\u52ab\u6642\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u300c\u5c07\u672a\u4f86\u5bc4\u6258\u65bc\u592a\u7a7a\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u6211\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u770b\u904e\u9019\u90e8\u96fb\u5f71\u7684\u4eba\u7576\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u500b\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u6211\u6240\u611f\u53d7\u7684\u9707\u64bc\u3002\u4e9e\u746a\u905c\u7db2\u7ad9\uff08www.amazon.com\uff09\u4e2d\u6709\u95dc\u9019\u90e8\u96fb\u5f71\u7684\u8a55\u8a9e\u6709913\u6bb5\u4e4b\u591a\uff082011\u5e748\u67082\u65e5\u700f\u89bd\u6642\u8a08\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u7576\u7136\u7121\u6cd5\u628a\u5b83\u5011\u5168\u90e8\u770b\u7562\u3002\u4f46\u5c31\u6211\u6240\u770b\u904e\u7684\u6578\u5341\u6bb5\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u4e00\u6bb5\u63d0\u5230\u6211\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u800c\u201cWall-E\u7684\u9707\u64bc\u201d\u5247\u5f9e\u4e00\u500b\u5074\u9762\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u5011\uff0c\u74b0\u5883\u554f\u984c\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u9053\u5fb7\u554f\u984c\u3002\u89e3\u6c7a\u74b0\u5883\u5a01\u8105\u96e2\u4e0d\u958b\u793e\u6703\u516c\u7fa9\u548c\u5168\u7403\u516c\u7fa9\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u591a\u7684\u5b78\u8005\u5df2\u7d93\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u3002\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c3\u95b1 Jonathan Neale \u6240\u5beb\u7684Stop Global Warming: Change the World (2008), \u4ee5\u53ca\u7531Paul Gilding \u6240\u5beb\u7684The Great Disruption: How the Climate Crisis Will Transform the Global Economy (2011) \uff0c\u4ee5\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e86\u89e3\u6709\u95dc\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede \u3002<\/p>\n

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