前些時,財政司長曾俊華曾經用了「完美的風暴」這個名詞來形容香港可能面對的威脅。我首次從新聞報導聽到時,心頭不禁為之一震。一個保守派建制派的自由經濟擁護者竟然也用上了這個名詞,可知情況已經嚴重到什麼地步!

事實當然是,踏進廿一世紀不久,一些科學家已經用「完美的風暴」(Perfect Storm)來形容人類面對的挑戰。這個名詞是借用氣象學家的術語,意即在各種有利條件的偶然組合之下,大自然可以產生駭人的超強風暴。(荷里活2007年一齣同名電影便用上了這個概念。)而按照科學家的分析,隨著全球工業化和經濟增長不絕,物資的消耗、垃圾的製造和環境的污染已經達到了地球不勝負荷的地步。一個「完美的風暴」正在醞釀,如果我們不及早阻止的話,勢必導致災難。

更具體地說,二氧化碳排放(每年達一百億噸!)所導致的全球暖化氣候變遷(包括特大的水災、旱災、風災和山火等)、生態環境不斷受到的破壞(包括雨林摧毀、海洋濫捕和土壤貧脊化)、以及石油被瘋狂地開採因而很快接近耗盡(全球每日消耗九千萬桶!單是美國便已佔了一千九百萬桶!),將很快引至能源危機以及糧食生產和淡水資源出現短缺。到時世界各地會出現激烈的資源爭奪,甚至爆發「氣候戰爭」和出現大量「氣候難民」。國際秩序將會因此而崩潰。

曾俊華所指的當然不是這些。他的著眼點是經濟。雖然他沒有明言(也不可能明言),但稍懂世局的人都知道,自零八金融海嘯以來,美國不斷印鈔來把問題暫時掩蓋,也以此來繼續欺騙和剝削全世界的人,這種情況的不可持續自不待言。任誰也看出,美元的崩潰只是遲早的問題。隨著而來的超級「通脹」與「通縮」

交替肆虐,好像香港這樣完全外向型的經濟,將有如驚濤駭浪中一葉扁舟承受不了。

是否興建第三條跑道的環評爭議實際上是一個笑話。假設工程真的上馬,待起好之時飛機將已無石油可用,而各國人民為了自保,出外旅遊將會是他們最後想到的東西…。

我們現時最迫切要做的,是「去全球化」和大力推動「本土經濟」:能源、糧食和淡水資源是首要目標。北美原住民中的克里族(Cree Indian)有一句話這樣說:「只有當我們砍下了最後一棵樹、捕捉了最後一尾魚和毒化了最後一條河之後,我們才會發現,原來金錢是不可以用來充饑的。

筆者在嘩眾取寵危言聳聽嗎?請大家從以下所列的書籍找幾本來認真看看,你便會知道曾俊華所指的「完美的風暴」只屬「茶杯裡的風波」,真正的「完美風暴」比他所認知的還要大上十

百倍!

1Limits to Growth – the 30-Year Update (2012) by Donella H. Meadows, Jorgen Randers & Dennis L. Meadows(原版於1972年面世)

http://www.amazon.com/Limits-Growth-The-30-Year-Update/dp/193149858X

2The End of Nature 1989by Bill Mckibben

http://www.amazon.com/The-End-Nature-Bill-McKibben/dp/0812976088/ref=pd_sim_b_1?ie=UTF8&refRID=06HJSSF1EB3M735NMS3E

3Beyond Growth – The Economics of Sustainable Development (1997) by Herman Daly

http://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Growth-Economics-Sustainable-Development/dp/0807047090/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1407735803&sr=1-1&keywords=herman+daly

4The Long Emergency – Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century2006by James Howard Kunstler http://www.amazon.com/Long-Emergency-Converging-Catastrophes-Twenty-First/dp/0802142494/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1407735365&sr=1-1&keywords=long+emergency

5The Bridge at the Edge of the World (2008) by James Gustave Speth

http://www.amazon.com/Bridge-Edge-World-Environment-Sustainability/dp/0300151152/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1407736338&sr=1-1&keywords=bridge+at+the+edge+of+the+world

6Storms of My Grandchildren (2009) by James Hansen

http://www.amazon.com/Storms-My-Grandchildren-Catastrophe-Humanity/dp/1608195023/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1407737086&sr=1-1&keywords=storms+of+my+grandchildren+by+james+hansen

7The Global Deal – Climate Change and the Creation of a New Era of Progress and Prosperity (2009) by Nicholas Sternhttp://www.amazon.com/Global-Deal-Creation-Progress-Prosperity/dp/1586486691/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1407737209&sr=1-1&keywords=global+deal

8Plan B 4.0 – Mobilizing to Save Civilization (2009) by Lester R. Brown

http://www.amazon.com/Plan-4-0-Mobilizing-Civilization-Substantially/dp/0393337197/ref=sr_1_7?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1407735571&sr=1-7&keywords=plan+b

9Prosperity Without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet (2009) by Tim Jackson http://www.amazon.com/Prosperity-without-Growth-Economics-Finite/dp/1849713235/ref=pd_sim_b_4?ie=UTF8&refRID=02VN4A9FKGGPNE8WZXDF

10The End of Growth – adapting to Our New Economic Reality (2011) by Richard Heinberg http://www.amazon.com/The-End-Growth-Adapting-Economic/dp/0865716951/ref=pd_sim_b_2?ie=UTF8&refRID=1DK6H0Q0WTX636EE8BEW

11The Great Disruption (2011) by Paul Gilding http://www.amazon.com/Great-Disruption-Climate-Crisis-Shopping/dp/B00B2S2OTE/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1407736613&sr=1-1&keywords=great+disruption+gilding

12Our Dying Planet: An Ecologist’s View of the Crisis We Face (2012) by Peter Sale http://www.amazon.com/Our-Dying-Planet-Ecologists-Crisis/dp/0520274601/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1421305964&sr=8-1&keywords=peter+sale+dying+planet

13《喚醒69億隻青蛙—全球暖化內幕披露》2011)李逆熵http://www.etpress.com.hk/etpress/bookdetail.do?id=9789626786505